The AMBOSS Score Predictor takes the mystery out of Step prep. It provides a data-driven estimate of your potential USMLE score, helping you track your progress and gauge your exam-readiness. Trusted by thousands of medical students, the predictor boasts a 95% accuracy rate in aligning with actual USMLE scores.
In our new White Paper, AMBOSS’s Principal Tech Product Manager, Ryan Field, walks you through the data science behind the Score Predictor and explains how we are using advanced data modeling techniques to deliver such accurate predictions.
5 key takeaways
1. How are students using the AMBOSS Score Predictor?
AMBOSS’s Score Predictor was created with two main goals in mind: to give you the most accurate USMLE® score estimates possible, and empower you with the knowledge you need to confidently decide whether or not you’re ready to take the exam.
2. How accurate is the Score Predictor?
On average, our predictions are within 7-10 points of students’ real final exam results. It doesn’t get much better than that! 😎
3. Where does the Score Predictor get its data?
We analyze the Self-Assessment results you submit and balance those with performance data from thousands of other students who also submitted Self-Assessment results.
4. What data modeling techniques does the Score Predictor use?
It draws on well-established longitudinal modeling techniques. The Score Predictors for Step 1 and Step 2 implement a linear mixed effects model with global- and user-level parameters. This means it still gives accurate predictions, even if you don’t give a lot of data. For example, if a student submits 2 results, the model relies more on averages and data “pooled” from similar students to make their Prediction. If another student submits 12 practice scores, the model gives those results more weight when calculating your final prediction.
5. How can I make my score prediction more accurate?
- Test close to your target exam date: Your most recent scores reflect your current level of knowledge, so submitting test results you got pretty close to the exam date will give you more accurate Predicted Scores.
- Submit lots of different practice tests: Taking various different Self-Assessments gives you a broader overview of how you could perform. Add in every practice test you take: giving us more data to work with generally leads to a more accurate prediction.
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Actionable takeaways for your Step prep
Gearing up for the exam? We wish you the very best of luck!
No matter how much time you have left to prep, AMBOSS has a host of resources to help you reach your full exam potential.
You probably already know that AMBOSS’s Qbank has over 5,900+ questions for Step 1 and Step 2, and generates personalized study recommendations as you work through Qs… but have you tried our Study Plans?
They’ll make sure you cover the must-know topics with maximum efficiency!
Step 1:
Step 2:
- 200 concepts that appear in every Step 2 exam
- High-Yield Ethics Study Plan
- 30 Step 2 Topics in 30 days
Unlock your full Step potential
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