The AMBOSS Score Predictor is the most accurate one out there! 1000s of medical students have used it to get spookily accurate predictions for Step 2 – and many of you got in touch to tell us you wanted to know more about how it worked.
In our new White Paper, AMBOSS’s Principal Tech Product Manager, Ryan Field, walks you through the data science behind the Score Predictor and explains how we are using advanced data modeling techniques to deliver such accurate predictions.
The 5 key takeaways
|
1. Why was the Score Predictor developed? AMBOSS’s Score Predictor was created with two main goals in mind: to give you the most accurate USMLE® score estimates possible, and empower you with the knowledge you need to confidently decide whether or not you’re ready to take the exam. 2. Where does the AMBOSS Score Predictor get its data? We analyze the Self-Assessment results you provide, and balance those with performance data from thousands of other students who also submitted Self-Assessment results. 3. How accurate is the AMBOSS Score Predictor? On average, our predictions are within 7-10 points of students’ real final exam results. This is an exceptionally high level of accuracy for a Score Predictor. 4. What data modeling techniques does the Score Predictor use? It draws on well-established longitudinal modeling techniques. The Score Predictors for Step 1 and Step 2 implement a linear mixed effects model with global- and user-level parameters. This means it still gives accurate predictions, even if you don’t give us a lot of data. For example, if Student A inputs 2 results, the model relies more on averages and data “pooled” from similar students to make their Prediction. If Student B shares 12 practice scores, the model gives those results more weight when calculating their final prediction. 5. What can I do to make sure my Score Prediction is as accurate as possible? Test close to your target exam date: Your most recent scores reflect your current level of knowledge, so submitting test results you got pretty close to the exam date will give you more accurate Predicted Scores. Submit lots of different SAs: Tell us the result of every practice test you took: the more data we have, the more accurate your prediction. |
-1.gif?width=377&height=377&name=Score%20Predictor%20(1)-1.gif)
Actionable takeaways for your Step prep
Facing a USMLE® exam soon? We wish you the very best of luck!
No matter how much time you have left to prep, AMBOSS has a host of resources to help you reach your full exam potential.
You probably already know that AMBOSS’s Qbank has over 5,900+ questions for Step 1 and Step 2, and generates personalized study recommendations as you work through Qs… but have you tried our Study Plans?
They’ll make sure you cover the must-know topics with maximum efficiency!
Step 1:
Step 2:
- 200 concepts that appear in every Step 2 exam
- High-Yield Ethics Study Plan
- 30 Step 2 Topics in 30 days
Unlock your full Step potential
If you aren't already using AMBOSS for your Step prep, it's never too late to start! Upgrade or renew your access now so you can dive into our Qbank, library, Study Plans, and more resources for Step.
